Identifying the Criteria for the "Success" of an Insurrectional Movement under the International Law of State Responsibility: The Jurisprudence of Arbitral and Judicial Tribunals.

Investment arbitral tribunals and the International Court of Justice, in addressing disputes arising out of civil wars, continuously face the challenge of ascertaining the success of an insurrectional movement. Article 10 of the Articles on Responsibility of States for Internationally Wrongful Acts conditions the attribution of insurgent conduct to the new state upon the movement's success, yet fails to provide clear criteria for establishing such success. This study aims to identify the legal criteria for determining the success of an insurgent movement and the precise moment of its realization, addressing the question of which indicators can serve as the basis for ascertaining success under the international law of state responsibility. Employing a descriptive-analytical method and drawing upon library-based sources, the travaux préparatoires of the International Law Commission, the practice of investment arbitral tribunals, state practice, and doctrinal perspectives, this research evaluates the existing criteria. It demonstrates that neither of the two traditional criteria—"effective control" and "recognition"—possesses, individually, the requisite capacity to determine the success of an insurgent movement. Accordingly, the study proposes a composite framework comprising six objective indicators: control over the capital, withdrawal of the forces of the prior government, widespread international recognition, membership in international organizations, relative stability of the new government, and its capacity to assume and perform international obligations. The innovative contribution of this research lies in offering an operational model for the interpretation of Article 10 of the Articles on State Responsibility, which can enhance coherence in judicial practice, improve predictability, and reduce ambiguities in determining state international responsibility in situations of power transition resulting from civil wars.